Quick overview of alumina spot market

What is aluminum oxide?

Aluminum oxide is a white powdery or sand-like substance that is insoluble in water and has stable physical and chemical properties. Aluminum oxide is the basic raw material for producing electrolytic aluminum and is used in about 95% of the world's production. It can also be used to make various kinds of refractory bricks, ceramics, and flame retardants. In the complete aluminum industry chain, alumina is located at the upstream position and is the direct raw material for smelting electrolytic aluminum, accounting for more than 30% of the production cost of electrolytic aluminum.

What are the factors that affect the price of aluminum oxide?

Supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, aluminum prices, the cost of producing alumina (sodium hydroxide, bauxite, and energy prices), import and export policies, and exchange rate fluctuations are all factors that influence the fluctuation of alumina prices.

How much aluminum oxide is produced in my country?

According to SMM data, China's alumina production accounted for 47% of the global total in 2013, but has since risen to 58% in 2022. Between 2013 and 2023, China's annual alumina output increased from 465.3 million tons to 780.7 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.9%. The shift in China's alumina capacity over the past five years has clearly shown a "west to east" trend, with the eastern coastal region gradually becoming the main force for the marginal release of alumina supply. According to the planned new capacity projects for domestic alumina, a total of approximately 17.3 million tons of capacity is planned for 2023 and beyond, and most of the projects are scheduled for completion in 2023. It can be seen that the domestic alumina industry's supply capacity remains strong in the future, and the capacity is relatively more concentrated in coastal areas near ports, with imported bauxite used as raw material.

Where are the main areas of alumina production in China?

The production of alumina in China is relatively concentrated, mainly distributed in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi, where the combined output of these four provinces accounts for more than 85% of the national total. These provinces are all rich in bauxite, the raw material for alumina production.

Where are the main consumption areas of alumina in China?

Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Yunnan are major provinces for aluminum production in China, and their corresponding consumption of metallurgical alumina ranks among the top four nationwide. In 2022, the above four provinces accounted for 19.8%, 15.2%, 15.2%, and 10.6% of the national total, respectively.

What is the logistics flow in the alumina industry in China?

The top 5 provinces for alumina output in China are Shanxi, Shandong, Guangxi, Henan, and Guizhou; the top 5 provinces for alumina input are Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Gansu, and Qinghai. In the global trade flow, alumina has a distinct resource-oriented feature, mainly flowing from areas with rich bauxite reserves to areas with weak reserves.

Is the aluminum oxide value chain stable in my country?

The aluminum industry chain is composed of bauxite - alumina - electrolytic aluminum - aluminum deep processing - aluminum end demand. Bauxite is the main raw material and cost source for producing alumina. China has a shortage of bauxite resources, and after decades of wild development, depletion is serious, and impurities in the ore are relatively high. In 2022, China's bauxite output was 67.81 million tons, down 24.5% year-on-year. In 2022, China's bauxite imports were 125 million tons, up 43.8%, and the dependence on imports is increasing. In 2022, China's bauxite import dependence rate reached 65%. The domestic supply situation of bauxite resources is becoming increasingly tense, and the industry is gradually strengthening its cooperation with overseas resources and accelerating the construction of alumina plants in Guinea, Indonesia and other countries with bauxite resources. Currently, Huqing Aluminum Industry, Tianshan Aluminum Industry, Zhejiang Huayou and Zhongfang Liding are building or planning to build alumina and electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia.

What are the major alumina production companies in China?

As of the end of 2021, there were 48 alumina enterprises in China, if calculated by group, there were 27 enterprises. The combined output of the top alumina enterprises in China accounted for 84.3% of the domestic total. In 2021, the combined output of the top five alumina producers in the world was 110 million tons, accounting for 85% of the global total. Chinese enterprises occupied 7 of the positions, including China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Xinfa Group, Jinjiang Group, East Hope Group, Guodian Group, and Nanshan Aluminum, with a combined output of 624 million tons, accounting for 48% of the global total. Overall, the number of alumina enterprises has not grown significantly in recent years, but due to the consideration of scale economies, alumina capacity is increasingly concentrated in very large enterprises, and the industry concentration is gradually improving.

What is the supply and demand relationship in the aluminum oxide industry?

There is currently an oversupply of alumina in China. According to the annual capacity of 4.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, the demand for alumina is estimated at 87.3 million tons. The current built-up capacity of alumina has already exceeded demand, and the continuous construction of new capacity in the industry has further aggravated the contradiction, leading to a suppression of alumina price increases and limited profit margins in the industry under price pressure. Excessive investment in capacity may threaten the healthy and sustainable development of the industry.

What areas should aluminum oxide enterprises focus on when using futures tools?

The focus should be on the expansion of futures tools for the upstream and downstream industries of caustic soda-alumina. This is mainly because caustic soda can account for about 15%-20% of the production cost of alumina, which is not a small proportion. Caustic soda is one of the important auxiliary materials in the alumina production chain. In addition, the aluminum oxide industry is also a huge demand area for caustic soda in the downstream, with a weight of nearly 33%. After the launch of both aluminum oxide futures and caustic soda futures, aluminum oxide enterprises will have more choices in managing their upstream and downstream procurement and sales risks in daily operations. Raw material procurement and finished product sales will have corresponding futures products for hedging management.